Title: ICT, Financial Inclusion, and Growth: Evidence from African Countries
Authors: Mihasonirina Andrianaivo and Kangni Kpodar
Pages: 45 pp.
Source: IMF
Date (published): April 2011
Date (accessed): 10/08/2011
Type of information: working paper
Language: English
On-line access: yes (pdf)
Abstract:
"This paper studies the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further, we investigate whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth. In estimating the impact of ICT on economic growth, we use a wide range of ICT indicators, including mobile and fixed telephone penetration rates and the cost of local calls. We address any endogeneity issues by using the System Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator. Financial inclusion is captured by variables measuring access to financial services, such as the number of deposits or loans per head, compiled by Beck, Demirguc-Kunt, and Martinez Peria (2007) and the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP, 2009). The results confirm that ICT, including mobile phone development, contribute significantly to economic growth in African countries. Part of the positive effect of mobile phone penetration on growth comes from greater financial inclusion. At the same time, the development of mobile phones consolidates the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth, especially in countries where mobile financial services take hold."

Title: Scenarios for Branchless Banking in 2020
Authors: Mark Pickens, David Porteous, and Sarah Rotman
Pages: 28 pp.
Publisher: CGAP: Consultative Group to Assist the Poor
Date (published): 03/11/2009
Date (accessed): 18/11/2009
Type of information: research brief
Language: English
On-line access: yes (HTML and pdf)
Abstract:
The growing use of branchless banking channels over the coming years is inevitable in most countries. But it’s far less certain whether large numbers of the unbanked poor will use these alternative channels for financial services beyond payments, such as savings and credit. CGAP and DFID undertook a six-month scenario-building project in which almost 200 experts from more than 30 countries helped answer the question “How can government and private sector most affect the uptake and usage of branchless banking among the unserved majority by 2020?”

We identified four forces most likely to shape the answers:
• The changing demographics of users
• The actions of increasingly activist governments
• Rising crime
• The spread of Internet access via data-enabled phones even in poor countries and communities

We also isolated four key uncertainties with important effects but uncertain outcomes:
• Which types of entities will be allowed to provide branchless financial services?
• Will providers craft viable business models for services beyond payments?
• How will competition play out?
• How will consumer, business, and regulator confidence be affected by the inevitable failures that will happen?

We created four scenarios that interweave these forces and uncertainties in different settings to produce very different trajectories over the next 10 years.

Title: How a younger world and the internet will change financial inclusion: Scenarios for 2020
Author Jim Rosenberg
Source: CGAP: Consultative Group to Assist the Poor
Date (published): 18/11/2009
Date (accessed): 18/11/2009
Type of information: blog post
Language: English
On-line access: yes (HTML)
Abstract:
...My colleagues, Mark Pickens and Sarah Rotman of CGAP and David Porteous for DFID took in the views of nearly 200 people from 30 countries to try to answer this question:
How can government and private sector most affect the uptake and usage of branchless banking among the unserved majority by 2020? ... concludes that the growing use of branchless banking, including mobile phone banking, is inevitable in most countries. But it’s far less certain whether large numbers of the unbanked poor will use these alternative channels for financial services beyond payments, such as savings and credit. Some highlights: